Reboot Illinois poll: Rauner has early lead in 2014 Illinois governor's race

Matt DietrichReboot Illinois

Jun 12, 2014

All content in this post copyright 2014 Reboot Illinois. 

We’re in the midst of what has become the most fascinating Illinois governor’s race in decades. Though the campaign still is in its early stages, the contest between Democratic incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn and Republican challenger Bruce Rauner already has become noteworthy for money raised and spent, pointed rhetoric (“Quinnocchio” vs. the “billionaire”) and the sharply divergent styles and philosophies of the candidates.

With just under five months before the Nov. 4 election, Reboot Illinois today begins taking the pulse of the electorate in our first poll. Conducted June 10 and 11 by pollster We Ask America, the survey below contains responses from 1,075 registered voters on the broadest question of the election: “If the election for Illinois governor were held today, for whom would you vote?”

Among all respondents, Rauner registered a 10-point lead (47-37, with 16 percent undecided). But Quinn had a commanding lead in Chicago, where his huge showing in 2010 helped him claim victory by a margin of less than 1 percent (46.79 percent to Bill Brady’s 45.94 percent; a difference of 31,834 votes).

“History teaches us to not make strong assumptions from these early polls,” said We Ask America CEO Gregg Durham. “Four years ago, Pat Quinn trailed Bill Brady by 10 points in August and fought his way back to win a close victory. Rauner’s lead in the collar counties and downstate is strong and may hold, but Cook County is the real battle ground.”

In 2010, Quinn won 64 percent of Cook County to Brady’s 29 percent, a margin of victory of more than 500,000 votes. Within the city of Chicago, Quinn won 75 percent of the vote — a margin of 400,000 votes. Quinn won 53 percent of the Cook County suburban vote, beating Brady by 100,250 votes.

The poll results show a gender gap in the race. Women favor Rauner by four percentages points, while men favor him over Quinn by 20 points.

The results also show that Quinn has more work to do to solidify his party base, compared to Rauner. Quinn has the support of 63 percent of those who identify themselves as Democrats, while Rauner, a first-time candidate, has the support of 83 percent of those who say they are Republicans.

This will be the first of a series of tracking polls we hope to conduct on statewide and congressional races, as well as on public policy issues in Illinois.

Poll results presented below are sorted by party, gender and region of Illinois. Click the tabs to see how each candidate scored with a particular group.

  Here are the results sorted by gender.     Where do Gov. Pat Quinn and challenger Bruce Rauner draw their support in Illinois? Here are the results broken down by location of respondents.   From the pollster: Methodology We Ask America’s automated polls are conducted using our proprietary lists of Illinois voters. Each person responded to identical pre-recorded questions although in some cases the options are rotated to assure no preference of order is involved.  Cell phones users who have volunteered to answer our poll questions are included; others in that category may be contacted through a variety of proprietary methods. Our sampling methodology ensures that We Ask America poll results are “projectable,” meaning that if every voter in a given geography participated, the results would not differ from the reported poll results by more than the stated margin of error (±3.0%) 95 percent of the time. We Ask America adheres to the principles, ethics and guidelines of the American Association of Public Opinion Research.

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